The heatwave of 2022 has been particularly deadly
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Record temperatures, drought, fires: the summer of 2022 was the hottest ever recorded in Europe. Although Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office, had already reported unusually high excess mortality during this time period, the proportion of mortality attributable to heat had not been quantified until now. This was done by a team from INSERM and from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), with the participation of Fran莽ois Herrmann, Professor in the Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics at the UNIGE Faculty of Medicine and Attending Physician in the Division of Geriatrics at the HUG. Their analysis estimates that between 30 May and 4 September 2022, 61,672 deaths in Europe can be attributable to heat. These results, published in the journal , suggest that the strategies we have today for adapting to heatwaves may still be insufficient.
In 2003, Europe experienced one of the greatest heatwaves in its history, causing more than 70,000 deaths. Since then, adaptation strategies have been developed to protect the most vulnerable populations. As heatwaves continue to multiply, and could double by 2050, it is crucial to better characterise the associated mortality and assess the effectiveness of the strategies put in place.
Using temperature and mortality data for the period 2015-2022 in 35 European countries, covering a total population of more than 543 million people, the research team developed epidemiological models to predict temperature-related mortality for each region and week of the summer period. While temperatures were above average during all summer, the greatest thermal anomaly was recorded between 11 July and 14 August, during which heat-related mortality would have caused 38,881 deaths. Between 18 and 24 July, the heat was particularly intense, with a total of 11,637 deaths attributed to excess heat during this period alone. In total, between 30 May and 4 September 2022, there were an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in Europe.
Extreme heat in Switzerland, with elderly women hardest hit
With an average temperature of +2.30潞C above the reference values, Switzerland is the 2nd country to have recorded the greatest increase in temperature, behind France (+2.43潞C), and ahead of Italy (+2.28潞C), Hungary (+2.13潞C) and Spain (+2.11潞C). In terms of mortality, the country with the highest number of heat-related deaths throughout the summer of 2022 was Italy, with a total of 18,010 deaths, followed by Spain (11,324) and Germany (8,173). In Switzerland, estimates stand at 302 (95% confidence interval: 48 - 557, a significant but modest increase), namely 255 women and 93 men. This corresponds to a heat-attributable mortality rate of 35 deaths per million Swiss residents, compared with 295 in Italy, 280 in Greece and 237 in Spain.
Across Europe, most deaths are concentrated in the 80+ age group, with an over-representation of women. "Last year, many countries had put prevention plans in place, unlike in 2003," says Fran莽ois Herrmann. 鈥淥ur results show that we need to develop better-targeted prevention measures, particularly in view of the acceleration in global warming observed over the last 10 years.鈥�
26 Jul 2023